At the risk of labouring my point, here is a quote that appeared in the ST sports section today. Somebody bet 135K pounds that England would beat Andorra, and got back 675 pounds as a result. Said the quote, a bookie: "I don't know what's less believable, a Scotsman backing England or someone risking 135K to win peanuts".
Now, that is the extreme example of the sort of bet that I would make on these matches. People still forget the end result, which is almost 100% certain: England was going to win. OK, I wouldn't pick up pennies in front of a bulldozer, and I would have taken any bet of, say, 1.05 upwards. I don't know what odds Singapore pools gave on this result. If it's anything above 1.01, then they're practically giving away money, and all you have to do is take it.
I'm just kicking myself for not collecting that free money when England were playing Kazakhstan and Andorra.
The point is not that these upsets do not happen. The point is that they happen so rarely that at the end you will still be ahead.
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2 comments:
"If it's anything above 1.01, then they're practically giving away money"
So even if England played 101 games against Andorra at their current performance, England will not lose a single game?
In football, there's a win, a lose, and a draw. And draws are scary.
OK, I take it to mean England will not lose or draw a single game.
I think England can afford to not win a single game. I am OK with that.
When you say "England plays 101 games, this is at their current performance, which is to say that after every match both sides will magically return to their pre match level of fitness, they will magically forget everything they learnt during this match, and they magically will not get bored of playing the same shitty side. Because some people could make the logical fallacy of saying "won't they get tired after 50 games?"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andorra_national_football_team
Somebody posted the all time record of Andorra. Andorra has won or drawn matches before, but only to lesser sides like Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, China, the Faroe Islands, Finland, Macedonia and Malta. Of the lot, Finland raised my eyebrows because they are the most powerful of the lot.
I also have faith in England. They may not be a world class side but Capello is their best coach since Venables, or even Bobby Robson. They will get the job done.
But OK, having to win 100 games is a little difficult.
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