Football Betting Week 7

Very brief note. Season was over already and not much to bet about. I think I only bet Tampines to win against Balestier because of my policy of always betting against the whipping boys. I also bet Everton to eat 1.5 ball against Chelsea. As the matched neared, I was beginning to realise this was potentially unwise. I had bought the odds for 1.28, and then I saw the odds lengthen to 1.5 just before the match. Which means that a lot of people felt that Chelsea could beat them by2 or more goals.

So I want to thank Louis Saha very much for his 25 second goal. I want to thank the referee for denying Chelsea a penalty. I want to thank the referee also for not realising that the ball that bounced down off a crossbar actually crossed the line, and that the real score of the FA cup final was 3-1. But Chelsea are rather more gracious these days after they got slapped left, right and centre for that Barcelona fracas. And furthermore if you have won the FA Cup, and are seeing off a coach that you like, you don't give a shit about these minor things.

I suppose that given some of the bad luck that I had been having over the last few weeks, I got some good luck to even it out. (Note to gamblers: this is not true, I'm taking poetic license with the laws of probability. It doesn't mean that just because you have had bad luck, some good luck will come around to even it out.)

Aside from that near miss, there was one of the biggest games of the season: Barcelona vs Man U. Fat boy asked me what to bet. I refused to put a wager on it, because I was so uncertain of the outcome. He pressed me for my gut feeling. My feeling was that Barcelona had the more talented side which played with more flair. But I also felt that Man U had always shown more spirit because they were a side from England. (Notice that I did not say they were an "English" side.) So I told him to bet on Man U. After the match I got worried that he threw away a large amount of money. Until I asked him, and he told me that another friend had told him that Barcelona were stronger. And he listened to that friend. So good for him.

At the end of the betting season, I had wagered $450, and my account is at +$10. It is not spectacularly good or spectacularly bad. I think that my strategy works, and that I'm on to something. I don't like people jumping to conclusions, and based on some generalised law they have heard about somewhere else, blithely say that all gambling leads to ruin. It doesn't mean that there are no systems that work. The eventual outcome of a spate of gambling should depend upon the behaviour of the gambler, and it should always be possible that if people behave in a way that is different from the average gambler, they can earn a small profit.