Saturday, 20 June 2009

Football Betting Week 8 Part 2

Brazil beat USA. Duh. What is surprising is that Egypt beat Italy. Or rather not surprising. You see, this is a vindication of my principles, which is to bet on form, not reputation. I didn't really believe that Egypt were that strong but they are playing in Africa after all (OK Italy is very near to Africa also), and I saw that Brazil very nearly failed to beat Egypt. I was forced to conclude that Egypt were really good and bet accordingly (luckily) even though some part of me didn't agree with that.

For the last round of the group matches, I bet for Iraq to beat New Zealand. No problems there, I expect to win comfortably. Also on the way to the betting shop I was deciding whether to bet on Spain to beat South Africa. There was an eerie feeling about that, but I bet anyway. In both cases I was sick and tired of winning pennies so I upped my stake to $20. Later on I realised what that eerie feeling was. South Africa had to win or draw to ensure qualification. If they lost and Iraq beat New Zealand, they would be out. Spain, already qualified, did not have to win. I did a Homeric "Doh!" and I decided to buy insurance by betting on a draw, which means that in the event of a Spain win or draw, I would win a modest $2. Of course, Spain could lose and I would lose $30, but too bad for me if that happened.

For the other group, I bet on Egypt to beat the US. Well I only out $10 on that because the US could always muscle out a draw. If Egypt got a better result than Italy, they would qualify, so they would want to win this one. But they are only slightly better than the US, in spite of their being able to beat Italy. We'll see how that goes.

Remember what Singapore pools says. Bet responsibly. Always do your research beforehand.

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