Football betting Week 9

This is one of the hardest posts I’ve had to write about betting on football. My main strategy had always been to identify the safe bets to put on, and to wager money on it. So many things have happened that have subverted this strategy.

Did I say in my last post that nothing would go wrong? What hubris that comment has turned out to be. I am scarcely alone among all these people when I wonder what happened to Iraq and Egypt. Maybe it's fatigue? Maybe they were complacent? 2 Arabic teams vs 2 Anglo Saxon teams, and both times, the Anglo Saxons got their way. Maybe I overestimated Iraq? They did well against Spain but they did not score any goals in 3 matches, and to win a match you have to score goals. They are, after all, a team in a mess. Why did I start wagering $20 when luck starts to turn against me?

Egypt, what happened to Egypt? USA was supposed to be a punching bag. Maybe Egypt thought they had already qualified. Well Egypt is one of the top receipiants of foreign aid from the US, so sometimes you wonder if it has anything to do with it.

And as for buying insurance for Spain vs South Africa, it was probably too much prudence. But anyway better safe than sorry.

Later on, I compounded the errors when I bet on Spain to beat the USA, and was as shocked as the rest of the world when USA beat Spain instead. Brazil won against South Africa to get to the finals, so I got something back. For the last round of matches, I thought I had nothing else to lose, since the way that things fell, a “strong”team was pitted against a “weak” team again. I bet on Brazil and Spain to win again. This time I got whacked. Brazil won USA, to be sure. The margin of victory was slender and the manner of victory suggested that it was a very close run thing. I threw a fit again when Spain failed to beat South Africa, the same team they whacked 5-0. Perhaps they were sure that they could get the winner in extra time.

I had severely underestimated South Africa and the USA. Both were teams that qualified for the semis, by the skin of their teeth (at the expense of “better” teams like Egypt and Italy, for the USA, and Iraq, for South Africa). Perhaps it was better to say that I had overestimated Spain and Brazil’s motivation to win this tournament.

I suppose the one thing I can learn from this is how much my strategy depends upon there being NO SURPRISES. I have also learnt that group games are different from knock out games. In knock out games, a draw is almost as good as a win, if you think that you can beat the other side in extra time. In group / league games, a win is a win, a draw is a draw, the psychology is totally different.

The Confederations cup has shown that there is a lot of attacking football on offer in international football, that the nice football on offer in Euro 2008 could continue in 2010, as opposed to the dreary World Cups of 2002 and 2002, as well as the awful Euro 2004 when Greece won. There is a trend now, where 4 or more people raid the opponent's half when a break takes place. There is a growing realisation that the winner is the one who scores more goals than the opposition, rather than the one who concedes fewer goals.

A completely unexpected turn of events is USA's march to the finals, after heavy losses in the first 2 games suggested that they would soon be heading home in disgrace. First, a thrashing of Egypt, combined with a heavy loss for the Italians sealed an extremely unlikely passage to the semis. Then, another extremely unlikely win against Spain. Then, getting within touching distance of the trophy itself by going 2 up against Brazil.

Who would have expected the US to be the romantic underdogs at anything? I think, yes, the USA will be a world force in football one day, even though that day seems 10, 20 years in the future. The USA and Australia are giant sporting countries, and the issue is not always whether they have the will to succeed, as whether you can get them interested in football. The USA, I suspect, will be like the German national team, not very pretty football but effective, and soon you will hear people say "never write off the Americans".

Spain underperformed yet again. The Spain team who so enthralled the world 1 year ago in the Euros looked like resuming the normal service of underperforming at major tournaments. Except maybe you could forgive them, considering that some of them were in the Barcelona team, which means they won Euro 2008, La Liga 2009, Copa Del Rey 2009, Champion's League 2009 and don't really have any more space in their trophy cabinet for another Confederations Cup.

I can’t wait for the regular season to begin so that I can attempt to fix my current account deficit.