It was supposed to be so easy...

There were 2 fuck ups today.

Today, and I was at fault for this, I ended up leaving my house later than I wanted to. I was looking for something in my room for longer than was warranted, and I could have just left it until the evening. (In fact I just looked at the one place I didn't look and ended up finding it 5 mins ago). I left the house, and one of the last images in my head was that of a felt wallet on a table top.

I drove to work today, so as to cut down the amount of time it took me to get there. There was a meeting and I wanted to be early for it. As I sped towards the gate of my workplace, the mental image of the felt wallet suddenly popped into my head again, and I was correctly able to interpret it correctly. It was my staff pass, without which I would not be able to enter the office.

I was seething. This was the worst possible time to not have my staff pass. I couldn't call in sick. I couldn't just go up to the pedestrian gate and say, "let me in, use a visitor pass" because I needed somewhere to park my vehicle. My phone did not have batteries. I had been counting on being able to charge the phone when I got to work. I had to get myself down to a payphone and call up - well I had only memorised 3 numbers. My boss's, his secretary's and myself. So I called up my boss's secretary, who told me that I had two choices - either go to the security office to get a temporary pass, or have the headquarters fax a letter to the security post to let me in. So I opted for getting a temporary pass for reasons I will explain later.

I drove over to the security office and asked for a pass. They said that they did not give 2 passes to anybody, so I asked my boss's secretary to send the fax over to the security post. I drove up to the security post, and the policeman there said that they hadn't received the fax. So I parked my car next to the post and waited. I asked if I could borrow a phone but only one there was an emergency phone, so the kindly security guard lent me his handphone. I thought, great.

I punched my number in, and pressed a button I thought was the call button. Instead, the MP3 player came up, and luckily the sound didn't come through the speakers. So I tried to shut it off. Then I pressed a second button. Up popped his SMS, and apparently the last message he received was his girlfriend saying "I love you". No wonder he was in such a good mood. I didn't need to hear that. But on the third try, I got through. Apparently the fax was on its way, and I didn't have to worry. In time, the fax came through, and I was on my way.

The meeting had started without me, and it was my intern making his final presentation. (This was why I could not take leave and say, "screw the pass") I walked in as he was about to wrap up. My boss called me into the room and chewed me up (again).

Lunchtime presented another conundrum. It was a farewell lunch for some colleagues. It was OK, but the food took too long to arrive. I had arranged for the big boss to meet up with the rest of the department to present the farewell gift right after lunch but it seemed as though we were not going to make it back to the office in time. So I SMSed the big boss that we were going to be late. After lunch, I left early to go pick up my temporary pass, and assumed that the presentation would go on without me. Just as I was leaving the pass office, I got an SMS from the big boss asking what the hell was going on. I called up the guy who organised the lunch and he told me that everybody was in the office and the presentation had not started. I was bemused. Did I have to be there to get things started? I told him to carry on and not care so much about me. It was strange but common sense is in short supply.

Rest of the day passed relatively uneventfully. It's strange that I could forget my pass and remember to run an errand in the evening, but that's exactly what happened. My errand at night was to drive to point A, somewhere between work and home, to update my POSB passbook. I would thus find out if a book buyer had paid me. Then I would drive to point B, somewhere out of the way but not too far away from home, to deliver the book.

As a song by The Streets goes, "it was supposed to be so easy"...

I reached the POSB cash deposit machine at point A, dumped my car in a carpark somewhere, and then got out to line up for the machine. The passbook updater next to the machine had failed to work. There was a curiously long queue in front of a machine. I spent 10 mins in line, and then tried to use the cash deposit machine to update my passbook. No go, technical problems.

It got curiouser when I went to point C to have my passbook updated. The machines were not working either! On my way to the bank, I had used the vending machine to buy myself a can of 100 plus. When I took out the can, I found that it was damp. I bought a leaking can! But I thought, what the heck, there are enough preservatives in this damn thing to make this safe for consumption, and any way isn't this the reason why the beverage tastes like shit?

OK, I thought that I would not find another cash deposit machine to update my !@#$ passbook, when it occurred to me that just before I got home I could swing by point D, just to check whether in the ensuing 20 minutes on the road, they had gotten the problem solved. I parked illegally (again), thinking that 10 minutes was all it would take. I was more or less right. But 5 minutes passed, when a car outside, in order to make his way around my illegally parked car, reversed his car into a motorcycle, which collapsed. The girl standing behind me said to the boyfriend, "hey isn't that our motorbike?" Thereupon the guy who was a rather hot headed fellow walked up to the car, banged on his window and yelled at the driver to "get the fuck out". Since I was a little guilty at having precipitated this screaming match, I parked my car at a more respectable place before going back to the bank to find out what I, deep inside already knew all along. THE BLOODY PASSBOOK MACHINE DON'T WORK.

Well this book buyer of mine took a bloody long time to pay me, giving the excuse / reason that he was overseas. Then when I reminded him, he said that he paid already, and thereafter sent me 1 email every day nagging about the book. I think I'll just go tell him that I'm overseas and I'll mail the book out when I get back next week.

Football betting Week 9

This is one of the hardest posts I’ve had to write about betting on football. My main strategy had always been to identify the safe bets to put on, and to wager money on it. So many things have happened that have subverted this strategy.

Did I say in my last post that nothing would go wrong? What hubris that comment has turned out to be. I am scarcely alone among all these people when I wonder what happened to Iraq and Egypt. Maybe it's fatigue? Maybe they were complacent? 2 Arabic teams vs 2 Anglo Saxon teams, and both times, the Anglo Saxons got their way. Maybe I overestimated Iraq? They did well against Spain but they did not score any goals in 3 matches, and to win a match you have to score goals. They are, after all, a team in a mess. Why did I start wagering $20 when luck starts to turn against me?

Egypt, what happened to Egypt? USA was supposed to be a punching bag. Maybe Egypt thought they had already qualified. Well Egypt is one of the top receipiants of foreign aid from the US, so sometimes you wonder if it has anything to do with it.

And as for buying insurance for Spain vs South Africa, it was probably too much prudence. But anyway better safe than sorry.

Later on, I compounded the errors when I bet on Spain to beat the USA, and was as shocked as the rest of the world when USA beat Spain instead. Brazil won against South Africa to get to the finals, so I got something back. For the last round of matches, I thought I had nothing else to lose, since the way that things fell, a “strong”team was pitted against a “weak” team again. I bet on Brazil and Spain to win again. This time I got whacked. Brazil won USA, to be sure. The margin of victory was slender and the manner of victory suggested that it was a very close run thing. I threw a fit again when Spain failed to beat South Africa, the same team they whacked 5-0. Perhaps they were sure that they could get the winner in extra time.

I had severely underestimated South Africa and the USA. Both were teams that qualified for the semis, by the skin of their teeth (at the expense of “better” teams like Egypt and Italy, for the USA, and Iraq, for South Africa). Perhaps it was better to say that I had overestimated Spain and Brazil’s motivation to win this tournament.

I suppose the one thing I can learn from this is how much my strategy depends upon there being NO SURPRISES. I have also learnt that group games are different from knock out games. In knock out games, a draw is almost as good as a win, if you think that you can beat the other side in extra time. In group / league games, a win is a win, a draw is a draw, the psychology is totally different.

The Confederations cup has shown that there is a lot of attacking football on offer in international football, that the nice football on offer in Euro 2008 could continue in 2010, as opposed to the dreary World Cups of 2002 and 2002, as well as the awful Euro 2004 when Greece won. There is a trend now, where 4 or more people raid the opponent's half when a break takes place. There is a growing realisation that the winner is the one who scores more goals than the opposition, rather than the one who concedes fewer goals.

A completely unexpected turn of events is USA's march to the finals, after heavy losses in the first 2 games suggested that they would soon be heading home in disgrace. First, a thrashing of Egypt, combined with a heavy loss for the Italians sealed an extremely unlikely passage to the semis. Then, another extremely unlikely win against Spain. Then, getting within touching distance of the trophy itself by going 2 up against Brazil.

Who would have expected the US to be the romantic underdogs at anything? I think, yes, the USA will be a world force in football one day, even though that day seems 10, 20 years in the future. The USA and Australia are giant sporting countries, and the issue is not always whether they have the will to succeed, as whether you can get them interested in football. The USA, I suspect, will be like the German national team, not very pretty football but effective, and soon you will hear people say "never write off the Americans".

Spain underperformed yet again. The Spain team who so enthralled the world 1 year ago in the Euros looked like resuming the normal service of underperforming at major tournaments. Except maybe you could forgive them, considering that some of them were in the Barcelona team, which means they won Euro 2008, La Liga 2009, Copa Del Rey 2009, Champion's League 2009 and don't really have any more space in their trophy cabinet for another Confederations Cup.

I can’t wait for the regular season to begin so that I can attempt to fix my current account deficit.

Wacko Jacko

When I was a kid my parents told me about Michael Jackson, who had just released his "Thriller" album some time back. Of course there was something curious about it that I couldn't put my hand on, but later on I figured out what it was. It was the strange fact that the king of pop was black.

In a way, racism was more or less dead for me, from that day. I was an impressionable kid, but I no longer really believed that a black man was incapable of doing stuff that people of other skin colours were capable of doing.

But I'm still a little disturbed by the way that black artists handle fame and fortune. Bobby Brown - drug addict, and pulled down Whitney Houston with him. Sly Stone - the less said the better. Jimi Hendrix - dead. Tupac - dead. Marvin Gaye - murdered by his father. Notorious BIG - dead. So on one hand, there are no differences between a white man and a black man, but on the other hand, there are important diffences - one swims in a sea of mostly white people, and the other one swims in a sea of mostly black people. If people decide whether or not to screw with you, they see first whether you are black or white. Have they figured out how to become a star? Elvis didn't figure it out, the Beatles didn't quite get it at that time. Maybe the black brothers will, someday.

You couldn't say these weird stuff happened to all child stars. Shirley Temple kept her head. Stevie Wonder - you wonder whether he was ever a kid at all because he seemed to be an adult even when he was young. Some people never got over it, not only MJ, but also Beethoven and Mozart.

I had read J Randy Taraborelli’s biography of Michael Jackson, which I sold on to Nat. (Yes, all 650 pages of it) It’s full of interesting detail, a little tabloid-y, and not a few unsubstantiated stories, but the picture that emerges is consistent and disturbing. There is some real psychological insight to his stories. Because, let's face it, Michael Jackson is seriously one mentally unstable guy. You think his face on the "Thriller" video was scary? Look at his real face 25 years later, without the prosthetic nose. Now that is scary.

One line from his book struck me: Michael saying, “it’s not lying, it’s show business.” This sums up everything you need to know about his (non-existent) ability to distinguish fiction and reality.

The man has so many contradictions that it’s fascinating. On one hand, he’s a ruthless businessman, and one of the very few people who can basically fleece Paul McCartney of his profits. On the other hand, he’s done so much for children’s charities. On one hand, he’s got so much discipline to become a great artist, on the other hand he’s such a conflagrate spender. On one hand, as a newspaper describes him, he seems to have lived so many lives before. On the other hand, he really has had only one life – as an entertainer. No proper childhood, a prospect that would haunt him for the rest of his life.

You probably heard about the rumours concerning him living in an oxygen tank. That was actually a stunt that he engineered himself. He thought it would be quite funny to print some bizarre stories about himself. There was no truth to it. But the damage done ultimately was considerable – he started getting known as Wacko Jacko, and the breakdown in trust between him and the media started a cottage industry whereby anything strange he did would be amplified into real weirdness.

There were some funny stories in there, like the time when he got arrested by the LAPD, and they spent 1 day trying to open a huge bank vault in his mansion. When they did, there was only a suitcase containing the combination to the safe.

But there were also stories of his real humiliation, for example how they took of his pants and tried to identify the marks on his dick.

The thing about stardom is that it brings you into the gaze of the entire world while almost completely cutting off contact between oneself and the real world. He almost alienated everybody who worked with him. Lisa Marie Presley, with whom he had a real relationship, and the person who knows both Kings of Pop first hand. Debbie Rowe. Even Elizabeth Taylor. There was a very astute businessman who helped him obtain very lucrative deals, he got cut off too, and to me that was the start of his financial downfall.

He never learnt from his lesson. He was such a strong willed person that nobody could tell him the truth, or to scold him (except maybe Lisa Marie Presley, but in the end she gave up). He still conducted the pajama parties with the kids. He kept on making himself liable to lawsuits. He didn’t understand that it was all wrong, regardless of whether he was really molesting them or not.

Michael Jackson became similar in many ways to the only other person who is routinely called the king of pop, Elvis Presley. Elvis lived in Graceland, Michael Jackson in Neverland. Both became drug addicts – Elvis to pills, Michael Jackson to painkillers. Both ended their lives a recluses, holed up in their hiding places, surrounded by syncopants.

The concluding sentence of that book rings true: you have to wonder how it was that a person who overcame such great odds to achieve such success was unhappy, and you wondered what he must do to achieve happiness in his life.

When I watched the top of the pops for the first time, Michael Jackson was #2, and the Police was #1. The Police are now touring around the world, selling out shows and making plenty of money. That is what Michael Jackson should have become. But even as we mourn his tragic death, we might remember that this could have been the path that he would go down if he had not succumbed to a heart attack.

Don't blame it on the sunshine, don't blame it on the moonlight, don't blame it on the good times, just blame it on the boogie.

Elvis Presley	Michael Jackson
King of Pop	King of Pop
Popularised black music	The first (and possibly last) black superstar
Mawkish socially conscious songs like “In the Ghetto”	Mawkish socially conscious songs like “Heal the World”
Ushered in the age of Rock and Roll	Ushered in the age of MTV
Married Priscilla Presley	Married Lisa Marie Presley
Branched out into cheesy movies like “Blue Hawaii”	Branched out into spectacular long videos like “Thriller” and “Smooth Criminal”
Famous for sexually aggressive dance moves (like swiveling his groin)	Famous for sexually aggressive dance moves (like touching his crotch)
Famous for sequined Las Vegas jacket	Famous for sequined glove
Startling physical transformation between youth and middle age	Shocking physical transformation between youth and middle age
Lived his later years as a recluse in Graceland …	Lived his later years as a recluse in Neverland …
Addicted to pills …	Addicted to painkillers …
Died young (42) of health problems	Died young (50) of health problems

Water Girl (again)

Sister was back for a vacation.

S: Oh, I saw the girl from the (censored) floor today when I was going out.

#9: Yeh?

S: Yeh, well she's a little chubby now, and not that cute anymore when she was younger.

#9: Yeh.

(Well she's still pretty hot, but if she's going to look like her mother in old age, forget it.)

S: She looks quite weird.

#9: She doesn't look like she has a boyfriend.

S: I don't think so.

#9: I could have been her boyfriend if she didn't reject immediately. For not following in the way of Christ. She doesn't seem very smart, does she?

S: Doesn't look like it.

#9: She had a chance. I gave that chance to her, and why didn't she take it? She didn't know? Didn't understand?

(pause)

#9: We wouldn't have worked out, right? If she's not as smart as I am?

S: Yeh it wouldn't have worked out. She's weird anyway.

#9: Maybe she knew that it was over. Maybe she knew that even if she didn't reject me it would have been doomed. A shame.

1. I must have said this much when I was 10 years younger: when a man sees a beautiful woman, there is this image of beauty in his mind, but as much as it is the woman is beautiful, the guy is making up the beautiful stuff as well. For no girl is as beautiful as the one embellished by the imagination of the male. In short beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

2. The distressing thing about growing older is that the girls you knew when they were younger and more gorgeous turn out to be distressingly ordinary. I suppose heaven is where all girls look the way they looked at 23.

3. Some people say, nothing ventured, nothing gained. All you have to do is try. But what they're really saying is "all I had to do was try". This doesn't work for everyone. I see people get in and out of relationships on a distressingly regular basis, without much learnt or much gained. If at first you don't succeed, try again, that is true. But many people forget: you have to try something new. OK, let's not talk about people like me who have basically done nothing, but sometimes merely trying again is not the answer.

Football Betting Week 8 Part 2

Brazil beat USA. Duh. What is surprising is that Egypt beat Italy. Or rather not surprising. You see, this is a vindication of my principles, which is to bet on form, not reputation. I didn't really believe that Egypt were that strong but they are playing in Africa after all (OK Italy is very near to Africa also), and I saw that Brazil very nearly failed to beat Egypt. I was forced to conclude that Egypt were really good and bet accordingly (luckily) even though some part of me didn't agree with that.

For the last round of the group matches, I bet for Iraq to beat New Zealand. No problems there, I expect to win comfortably. Also on the way to the betting shop I was deciding whether to bet on Spain to beat South Africa. There was an eerie feeling about that, but I bet anyway. In both cases I was sick and tired of winning pennies so I upped my stake to $20. Later on I realised what that eerie feeling was. South Africa had to win or draw to ensure qualification. If they lost and Iraq beat New Zealand, they would be out. Spain, already qualified, did not have to win. I did a Homeric "Doh!" and I decided to buy insurance by betting on a draw, which means that in the event of a Spain win or draw, I would win a modest $2. Of course, Spain could lose and I would lose $30, but too bad for me if that happened.

For the other group, I bet on Egypt to beat the US. Well I only out $10 on that because the US could always muscle out a draw. If Egypt got a better result than Italy, they would qualify, so they would want to win this one. But they are only slightly better than the US, in spite of their being able to beat Italy. We'll see how that goes.

Remember what Singapore pools says. Bet responsibly. Always do your research beforehand.

A Double Life - 3

Scene 6

(UE Mall. A is at the side of the stage, at some higher level, looking down at the main area.)

A: Joe's going to give me a total hiding if he knows I'm here again, but I don't care. I need to see him again. I just wonder if he comes down here often enough. I just want to see his face. I just want to know what kind of life he's having. yet at the same time I don't want him to know about me. That must be it, I suppose. Oh, wait, here he comes!

(Enter B and Jennifer, and they go on to sit at a table. They're miming in this scene, because I don't have the stomach to think up of whatever cute and mushy stuff they're going to say to each other, and anyway the audience doesn't have to know anything except that they're rather intimate.)

A: My God they remind me of myself and Jackie when we were starting out. She always had me around her little finger. I'm just wondering what would have happened if I hadn't agreed to take those shots of Eddie. (Lights off except for single spotlight on A. B and Jennifer leave) Eddie, Eddie. He was the guy that I always turned to when I needed help with anything concerning the running of a business. He was an enormously successful businessman himself, and was always busy, but he never hesitated to give me any of his time. Problem was, he was too successful, and there were a number of people who wanted him out of the way. One of them was Jackie's father, Joe. What they did was simply brutal. They set him up with Jackie, knowing that he wasn't the kind of man who would easily turn down a proposition like that. Then they had me stationed under the bridge where nobody could see me. I was a photographer in those days, running my own business. Not entirely successful, but many people knew and liked my work. And there I was, clicking away, and I couldn't tell that it was Eddie that I was shooting at until the film came up.

(Lights back on, enter Eddie. Both of them walk up to the table that B and Jennifer occupied and sit down)

Eddie: Hey, A, what's up? I heard you had some trouble with the business.

A: Well.. I do, but that's not what I really came up to see you about.

Eddie: Well, I gotta tell you that it's really brave for a person like you to be striking out on your own. It's always going to be a real bitch

for you to be competing against all the major studios all on your own, and not everybody's going to appreciate your way of doing things, but .

A: There's something I gotta tell you.

Eddie: Oh, what is it?

A: Uh. it's like . uh .

Eddie: See, that's the problem with you. You just got to be more decisive. It's a jungle out there. People are out there killing each other all the time in the business. You hesitate one time and you're lost. You see an excellent business opportunity, you got to grab it with both hands. You can't really afford to think about how others are going to react to you. Once you've lost the opportunity, it's not going to come knocking again.

A: Actually, that just reminds me ..

Eddie: You've got to see that there's this edge you have over other people. All those prizes you've won in photography. You've got to learn how to use all that for publicity. You may think that it's prostituting your art, and that it's vulgar and it's crude and all that, and I could see your point of view on that, but at the end of the day what matters is that you get the message across that you must have something in you that deserves all those prizes you've won.

A: Yeh, I guess so.

Eddie: Oh, by the way, I just heard that you've just been nominated for another international freelance photography award. Congratulations!

A: Well, thanks.

Eddie: I've been talking a lot, but that's because I'm in such a happy mood. I want to tell you about this hot chick I met at Clarke Quay yesterday afternoon.

A: See, that's exactly the kind of thing that would.

Eddie: Make my day, see, she was like. well, I don't know if I've seen her before, but that's probably got to do with the fact that she's a model. A real hot babe. real intelligent too. (suddenly apprehensive) you're not going to tell my wife, are you?

A: Er . erm . no .

Eddie: Well, heck, no. It was nothing serious, we were just having a little fun. I'd have asked my wife to join in. They'd have got on fine .

A: Oh really?

Eddie: Well, somebody's just paged me . I gotta go. See you some other time. (exits)

A: (to audience) That was the last I ever saw of him. What I did to him was really dishonourable. That was the first time in my life that I ever had to hide under a bridge to take photographs, and although I didn't feel sick at the time, I really do now. All Jackie ever told me was that I was going to take a photograph of a man having a liaison with a woman. She neglected 2 important facts: That she was going to be the woman, and that Eddie was going to be the man. They just wanted to set up some incriminating evidence to get Eddie into trouble with his wife. (Pauses)

After I realised what the pictures actually contained, I wanted to confess to him, but I couldn't. It would sound ridiculous, because I had already done the deed. After they had the photographs publicised, it was the straw that broke the camel's back. His wife had long known about the womanising, but it was still alright that everything was done in private. What followed was a long divorce case and a big alimony payout.

Say what you want but ultimately she was still his first love, and he definitely didn't want it to end that way. It destroyed him. After that he wasn't the same Eddie anymore and his business empire started to crumble. And who did I do it for? What was it all for?

(Enter Jackie. She sits down at the table with him)

Jackie: (rubbing his forearm) Hey, don't take it so bad. I didn't know that he was that close to you. (A is silent) Hey, you want to hear the good news? Father has agreed to pump 100 hundred thousand into your shop. Aren't you happy?

A: (sullen) I can't complain.

Jackie: And in the meantime, he's got us a nice villa in Southern France for our honeymoon.

A: That's nice to . Look. First of all, Eddie was the guy who was helping me through all the rough times, and secondly, I don't at all like what you did with Eddie in those photos.

Jackie: Come now, it was all an act. It was all put on, you know. I didn't like him one single bit.

A: Really? You must have been a really good actor.

Jackie: Well, not really. he did have something there, though . look, why don't you stop thinking about such unpleasant things . I .

A: I can't go on with the business. I can't keep asking for help from your father everytime I run into monetary difficulties.

Jackie: Well, so much the better, then. Why don't you come join in the family business? I'm sure father's dying to have someone by his side that he can trust?

A: Well . I . I'm not very sure if I can .

Jackie: It's alright, everything's going to be fine, I can assure you .

A: I hope so, it'll be good for the 2 of us . (Jackie gets up and leaves. A addresses audience) So, I suppose, that's how it all began for

me. Hold on, someone's coming . (hides in the same place where he witnessed B and Jennifer. This time, B and Jennifer's father, John come in.)

John: I understand that you want my daughter's hand.

B: Yes, we are very much in love.

John: Very much in love . That's just so like my Jennifer. She can convince anybody that she's very much in love with him.

A: I can't make out a word they're saying . but this so reminds me of the time when Joe was telling me I had to set-up someone in order to gain his approval.

B: At least . Jennifer's . agreeable to it.

John: Yes, yes, that is true . but . I'm not as easy as Jennifer is to convince. I need to know . more about you . you have to do something that convinces me that you're worthy.

B: What could it be?

John: This is a public place . well, come, I'll give you a ride, and I'll tell you along the way. (both exit)

A: I can see it so clearly now, he's walking in to the same trap that Joe set for me. He'll get tricked into betraying a friend, he'll leave the life he loves, and he'll find that he doesn't really care that much for his wife and her life anyway. I've got to tell him something . but what will I tell him? What can I say? I can't tell him anything about Joe and Jackie. It's insanity. It's courting death. What the hell, he'll have to learn it the hard way, just as I had to learn it the hard way. It's none of my business, anyway. None of my business .

Scene 7
Dim lighting, warehouse. The smuggling operation is being carried out. A is there, overseeing the procedures. Workers are carrying boxes in and out of a warehouse.

A: (to worker 1) You keep a lookout on that sector (points to stage right) I'll keep a lookout with mine. (Stands watch over stage left) Jennifer walks in from stage left, and at a certain distance away from the warehouse, she pretends to trip and fall.

A: Hey, I'll go see what's going on.

Worker 1: You be careful, boss. I suspect it might be a trap.

A: I think she's fallen badly and she needs help. (goes over and looks at her. Murmurs .) God, she's beautiful.

Worker 1: Guys, we'd better hurry up. I don't feel good about all this.

A: Yes, you guys go hurry up .

(Enter B, at the side of the stage left).

B: I'm not sure what this guy really wants from me, but I've got to do this for Jennifer's sake. (Starts clicking away. ) This is the first time I've had to take a picture from hiding. It's not very comfortable here under the bridge. (Click a few times) Now I've got to get up close and take a few faces.

Jennifer: Oh, it hurts very badly . I was just going home, and it's so dark in here .

A: What can I do to help, miss?

Jennifer: I've sprained my ankle, I'm afraid. It'd really help if you'd massage my ankle like this

A: Like this?

Jennifer: No, a little higher up . Oh, that really feels so good . Oh .

oh, I've got a cut somewhere there. Would you mind finding me a plaster?

A: A . plaster? Sure. (Fumbles through his pockets) I haven't got one with me right now . Hold on, I think there's a first-aid kit somewhere .

(goes over to warehouse. Jennifer gives B the signal and he sneaks up behind A as his back is turned. Worker turns around and sees somebody behind A)

Worker 1: Hey, who's that behind you?

A: Wha . (turns around, and B flashes the camera in A's face) I can't see! What the hell's going on? (B starts clicking away a few more times, and then runs away)

Worker 1: (points to 2 other workers) You two, go after them (they comply, as both Jennifer and B leave.)

A: Abandon operation! Abandon operation! (Some police sirens in the background. Workers scramble around trying to dispose of the evidence.) This is a set-up!

Scene 8
Same setup as scene 1, except that both A and B are sitting behind tables. Only a red spotlight on B. B is developing negatives.

B: (Holding up a developing print to the light) It's him, oh my God it's him. Who would have thought . My God, what have I done? (Off spotlight on B. Stage lights on A. Prisoner's visiting day. Jackie enters.)

A: (Brightening) Oh, it's you.

Jackie: (slaps A) All because of another woman? You made me a prison widow all because of a woman?

A: How was I to know?

Jackie: Of course I know what it was like. You got waylaid by her. The fact that you were susceptible to these kinds of tricks is practically the first thing I learnt about you.

A: I mean . I . it wasn't entirely my fault.

Jackie: No matter. I just wanted to hear it from you that you let yourself get waylaid by a pretty vixen.

A: Well, I did . it was just a moment of weakness, could you just .

Jackie: Right. Now that we've got that out of the way, I've got no business being in this wretched place, WIMP.

A: No. No, don't leave me now. Not when I need you more than ever .

Jackie: Don't worry about me, darling. I'll be just fine . probably seeking out better specimens of male company than what you'll be getting

in here. Bye. Don't expect me to drop by anytime in the near future. (leaves) (Stage left darkens. Stage right lights on)

B: (Linda walks in) Take a look at this . it's actually him.

Linda: Can't you stop them from .

B: Too late. They've already sent the copy of the prints to the police. There's nothing I can do now . to think that he's actually involved in all this .

Linda: You've done a terrible thing .

B: Yes. but I did it for the woman of my dreams . the woman of my dreams

. (Lights off. End of play.)

Football Betting Week 8

OK, I did say the season is over, but for a few lucky (or unlucky countries) this is not so. Because we have the Confederations Cup. Last week, there was some easy money to be earned if you bet on Spain to trash New Zealand, or if you bet Brazil to beat Egypt. (But it must be said that Brazil came very close to not beating Egypt).

I said before that international football represents a unique betting opportunity. Results are more guaranteed, a strong team is less likely to screw up against a weak team because the players know they don't want to be pelted with rotten tomatoes at the airport when they get home.

So dis week, I bet on Spain vs Iraq. The bookies obviously think that Iraq is very weak even though South Korea and Saudi Arabia couldn’t get past them in the Asian Games. I wanted to put Spain beats Iraq but they were giving me 1.02. Then I saw that they were giving 3.5 balls to Iraq. Take it, goddamn! OK, I won that one at 1.4. I also bet on Brazil to beat the US, that one I understood. And also for Egypt to eat ball vs Italy, something that really mystified me – why didn’t I just bet on Italy to win? Duh. Anyway, Egypt, don’t fail me now.

Money for nothing and checks for free.

Results: Brazil beat USA. Duh. What is surprising is that Egypt beat Italy. Or rather not surprising. You see, this is a vindication of my principles, which is to bet on form, not reputation. I didn't really believe that Egypt were that strong but they are playing in Africa after all (OK Italy is very near to Africa also), and I saw that Brazil very nearly failed to beat Egypt. I was forced to conclude that Egypt were really good and bet accordingly (luckily) even though some part of me didn't agree with that.

Buddy Dot SG

Interesting weekend. On Thursday I had been messing around with my copy of Cakewalk and I found out how to make my MIDI have multiple instruments. Well, finally! So I have some more decent sounding demos. Unfortunately they are just demos, and unfortunately my music won’t be to everybody’s taste, so I don’t know how and why it matters.

The other thing is that one of my jogging buddies came up with the idea of buying and selling calculators. You’re not going to believe this. I was shaking my head when I heard about this idea, but I thought I would go down and hang out with the gang and have some fun.

People who take CFA exams need a specific sort of calculator. We were going to distribute cards to people who were taking those exams. I was taking the afternoon shift, so I was supposed to get there at noon. Of course I was late. But well on the way there, there was this hot teenage chick with great skin tone and tight leg muscles, she was wearing a MILK run t shirt. She got a shirt which was a little tight, so it was rather pleasant to watch the letters “MILK” stretched over her figure. But digressions aside, I was late.

I looked at the card. They were printed cards, like business cards. Probably cost 8c a piece, and I wondered, “you are going to cover the cost of labour, of printing the cards, by selling a few cheap calculators? You are shitting me?” The marketing was wrong: “Recycle your calculator” And it was green. What does being green and recycling have to do with anything? It missed the main point: we want to give you MONEY for your calculator.

Here’s how it works. If you want to sell your calculator, SMS to inform us (if you’re brave enough to risk giving your hp number for spam). Then drop by at one of the pickup points at a date that is printed on the card. If you still remember us by then (the date is in August, because that’s when results are going to be out.) Make the trip down specially for us. Then we’ll give you $15.

I was thinking, “well, we still have to be in those places on the appointed date, right? And we did say we’ll be at the MRT station, but MRT stations are quite large, right?”

One of my friends, K, said that after a while he knew it was going to be a hare brained scheme. I was slightly smarter and I knew right off, but I was curious enough about their “business model” that I just had to go and check it out.

We realised that it was difficult to distribute the cards to the exam candidates. A lot of people who were going into the exam hall, you probably were better off not talking to them. Some of my friends were a little too shy to go approach the CFA candidates. (Yeh? So why do you go into business in the first place?)

When I got there, they told me that they had around 10 boxes of cards to get rid of. I was thinking, why the f did you print that many? Were there so many candidates? Eventually we figured out that there were enough for every car in the parking lot. So when the exam was going on, we went out in the sun (thank goodness it was a cloudy day) and put the cards under any windshield wiper we could find. There were at least 4 other flyer distributors on that day.

I thought at first, why print something on a card when it was so much cheaper to just print it on paper? But I suppose it was sensible to print it on a card so that people can keep it in their wallets if they have the intention to remind themselves what to do with the calculator. Still, the expense was out of proportion to what

After that, we caught up with work and stuff. Finally came the hour of reckoning when the gates were about to open. I caught up with a few of those who left the hall early. I tried to push the card to one, she said no thanks, I don’t want to sell the calculator now. I said, we’re buying in August, after the results are out. Then she said, OK, fine.

I went around, and told them about the deal. Some were amused, some were bemused. I realised something about distributing flyers. If a bunch of people are walking past you, and they’re on their own, they will often refuse to take the flyer from you. I do that often because I can’t stand the clutter over and above what I usually generate on my own. If you catch them when they’re standing in a circle and talking to friends, and if the first person accepts it, the rest of them will accept it too. (Even though deep inside I know they will throw away those expensively printed cards.)

After a while, though, I realised that the message I was sending to people was “I hope that you fail your exams and not need your calculator anymore and send it to us.” I wonder if the people in the morning felt that having that card on them while taking the exam would be some sort of jinx.

It was great for laughs. People were laughing at the idea, and the novelty of it, so it was fun. I’m not the one who came up with the idea so I didn’t mind what people thought of it.

At the end of the day, the mastermind admitted that this idea might not work. I’ve had similar experiences before, where I tried to buy a lot of CDs, and then flip them after ripping them so that the cost I pay for the stuff is the difference between the buying and selling price. But things did not work out like that I got stuck with a whole lot of CDs that I couldn’t get rid of. I think a lot of business schemes fail because we underestimate the inefficiencies in the systems we have created.

I told them about my football gambling scheme. They were sceptical at first, but I still believe that systems are possible. I passed a comment that THAT was a viable business plan. But later I still have to face the hard facts: after all that effort, I’m still only $10 ahead. It’s still not profitable enough. The fact is that you have to be content with a very modest profit, you are highly leveraged, and you have to have the balls to gamble with an amount of money that if the average guy were doing it, you would call him a problem gambler. Anyway I will post up the essay I wrote on this gambling method someday.

Well at least it was an interesting experience. If nothing else, I guess I still have a career as a promising rock star to fall back upon.

Short end of the Betting scale

At the risk of labouring my point, here is a quote that appeared in the ST sports section today. Somebody bet 135K pounds that England would beat Andorra, and got back 675 pounds as a result. Said the quote, a bookie: "I don't know what's less believable, a Scotsman backing England or someone risking 135K to win peanuts".

Now, that is the extreme example of the sort of bet that I would make on these matches. People still forget the end result, which is almost 100% certain: England was going to win. OK, I wouldn't pick up pennies in front of a bulldozer, and I would have taken any bet of, say, 1.05 upwards. I don't know what odds Singapore pools gave on this result. If it's anything above 1.01, then they're practically giving away money, and all you have to do is take it.

I'm just kicking myself for not collecting that free money when England were playing Kazakhstan and Andorra.

The point is not that these upsets do not happen. The point is that they happen so rarely that at the end you will still be ahead.

Late night thoughts on Football Betting

This is the essay that kick started my gambling spree. In a way it was not a gambling spree but rather my attempt to test this theory. So far the theory is proving to be moderately but not spectacularly successful. This was also sent to some ppl in my department who regularly bet on 4D / Toto, games with negative expected takings. I never play those games.

In summary, the bad news is that if the bookies price their odds in a certain way, and if they don't make mistakes, you will never win money from football betting in the long run. But the thesis here is that not only do they often make mistakes, they make deliberate mistakes, because the people who bet against them are not rational maximisers of money (since when could that description ever be pinned on gamblers?) but have a higher preference for risk. The betting odds are designed to maximise profits against punters with this profile.

The modest profit that I have made from making 40 bets suggests that the theory is sound. But it is quite a bit of work for quite a little bit of money. If I want to really roll in the cash, I will have to be a big big punter, and I don't know if I have the stomach for this.

Anyway, here it is, for those of you who want to milk the Singapore Pools cow.

Some people have asked me why I bet on football and do not bet on 4D / Toto. After some experimentation I have tried to make sense of it all:

Betting


Before we get into the main topic of what a good betting strategy is, let us go into the mind of the bookie. One of the first things is to realise that to be a bookie you need some objectives, some of which are fairly contradictory to each other.


Probability based pricing


The standard way of setting odds is based on probability. That is to set odds that prevent statistical arbitrage. What is this? Let us go into some maths.


Suppose there is an experiment with 2 possible outcomes, A and A’. Event A takes place with probability p. If somebody bets on A, then you should sell it to him at odds X(A), where X(A) is less than 1/p. I write X(A) the way Singapore Pools does it here. If you buy a betting ticket at X(A), it means that if you bet $1 and lose, you will lose that $1. Otherwise you will win X(A). Obviously X(A) is more than 1.


As for why you, as a bookie, should sell the odds at X(A), let’s go to the law of large numbers. Suppose this experiment were to be performed many times. Then the number of times you get outcome A is close to pn. Suppose the gambler were to bet $1 on A every time. Then he would win close to pn times, and your payout is around np(X(A) - 1). At the same time the gambler loses n(1-p) times, and he pays you n(1-p). So the amount of money you have is n(1-p) - np(X(A) -1). Rearranging the terms, that means X(A) is less than 1/p.


At the same time, X(A’) should also be less than 1/(1-p). That way, you will get a profit either way. Don’t worry too much about the numbers. Just try to understand the idea of what p is. p is the actual probability of A taking place.


The question is, what is p? Nobody really knows what p is. It is just the perception. But the "rational" buyer will have his own conception of what p is. I say "rational" because your customers are all gamblers and gamblers are not generally rational.


If bookies always set their odds on this principle, then football gambling would be like toto or 4d: the odds are always against you, every ticket gives you a negative expected return. Fortunately for us, there are a few reasons why bookies will sometimes deviate from this principle.


Why bookies deviate from probability based pricing.


First, there is also the market to consider. Suppose everybody were to bet on A. That would be bad for you if A actually did happen. Fortunately there is a pricing mechanism that can influence more gamblers to bet on A’ instead. So you adjust X(A) and X(A’) accordingly. But now you have shifted the balance away from the ideal, which is to set things based on p.


Suppose p were, say 0.95. Then by right you should price X(A) at less than 1.052. The thing is - who the hell would want to buy a bet from you at 1.052? You can’t balance the odds. Everybody will bet on A’, and in the event that A’ takes place, you will lose on A’ more than what you gained from the people who bet on A and lost to you.


In order to induce more people to bet on A, you price it at X(A) = 1.1, or 1.2 instead. But that means that the rare person who buys it from you at 1.1 will get a free ride. Understand that what is going on here is essentially the bookie is buying insurance from the punter who bets on a likely outcome. If you are buying insurance, chances are you are making a loss.


This criterion – loss minimisation is often contradictory to probability based pricing schemes. This contradicts the efficient markets hypothesis. If people are rational and have a cold hard look at the value of p, they would not be betting the way they are betting.


This is why you must realise that the punter is not only betting against Singapore Pools. He is also betting against the market, and the market is other punters, many of whom do not have "O" levels in Maths.


Gamblers are generally not very good at calculating stuff. That’s why you, the bookie, are making so much money. Suppose the probability p is 0.95. Then 1-p is 0.05. What would X(A’) have to be under the probability based pricing scheme? 19. A big fat 19! Is anything ever priced at 19? You will never find it. But you could price something at, say, 7 or 8 and people would think that it’s hell of a bargain. They’re not going to demand that you set your odds at 19, even though that is the fair price. They will be happy with 8. They will feel lucky and bet on 8, and chances are, they will lose their clothes, the poor suckers.


The other reason why you don’t want to set X(A) at 1.05 is this: by doing so, you will be telling the whole world that you, the knowledgeable bookie thinks that it is almost impossible that A’ is going to happen. Who would want to bet on A’? Nobody, because you are announcing to the whole world that A’ will never happen. Who will want to bet on A? Nobody, because the odds are too low.


The 90% rule


So my strategy is, find outcomes that have p = 0.9. Chances are, whatever the odds are, they’re better than 1.1. You will win more than you lose. You may think that it’s not worth it to bet on low odds, but that would be making the classic mistake.


So the question is: is there such a thing as a 90% event? Yes. If you look at football and the league table, the league winners will win around 65-70% of their matches. Last season Man U won 25 out of 38, which is around 65%. When Chelsea won their first EPL, they were so dominant they won 29 matches, which is 75%. Last season, at the other end of the table, Derby County lost 29 matches, which is also 75%.


So that is already a 70% chance of winning, playing the average middle table team. If you have a big 4 team playing a whipping boy, the chance that the big 4 team will beat it could go up to more than 90%.


The other thing is that the form of both teams is non-stationary. This means that Man U winning 65% of the matches includes all the matches where they have just returned from Europe, had key players injured, gone through a bad patch. Yes, Virginia, there is such a thing as form. Team dynamics is a very ephemeral thing. Shift a few parameters out of line, and the whole teamwork disappears, heads drop, etc etc.


So there are such things as 90% events. It is simple. Just bet on them. So how do you identify 90% events? Well there’s not enough space here to talk about it. Obviously your skill is important. I am writing a non-constructive proof here so I only have to show that something exists without necessarily telling you how to attain it.


Risk


Maybe you think that a 10% return is meagre? The average investor would think that 10% a week is fantastic. Even 5%. You are in this thing to win money. You don’t ask for higher returns unless you really want to be a gambler. Well you are not a gambler. You are a probabilist. You must pick your fights.


Here’s the thing: there is asymmetry of power in this game. Yes, the bookie sets the odds and if he had his way, he will set the odds against you every time. That’s why you should stay on the segment of the spectrum where it is difficult for the bookie to price the odds against you. Think of yourself as a winger. The right back / left back will find it difficult to tackle you because he has to stay inside you, and because if he tackles, chances are you’ll get a throw in anyway. This method of punting is similar to playing on the wing.


You can see this in what Singapore pools have done. They are sick and fed up of losing money all the time because they always expose their asses wide open for bad people like me to take advantage of the system. So in order to steer people away from betting on 90% events, they have introduced the first half – final results combi. Combis are bad bad things because they are not in the 90% range, so don’t fall for it.


Maybe you think that gambling is not safe? Compared to what? Lehman minibonds? When you buy a structured product there’s not much you know except that your relationship manager has a tight skirt and a fantastic ass. There is not much useful information out there. At the same time, when you put your money in for the long run, there is always a case that something really bad would go wrong, and your investment will blow up.


When hedge funds blow up, it is because of the unknown unknowns. Think about LTCM. Who knew that the Russians were going to default? Who knows the way that interest rates / oil prices / the weather is going to go? Who knows if your bank is going to collapse? Who knows the insides of companies, and how well they are really run? Who knows how the iPod is going to fare in the market?


In contrast, in football, the information is there. Who is on fire, who is not playing well, who is injured, who is the good tactician, who is a good acquisition. Your risk manager is Alex Ferguson / Arsene Wenger / Rafael Benitez. They are the best in the business and your interests are perfectly aligned with them, if they want to win. Even better are internationals, where you know that if Italy were to lose or draw against Luxembourg they will have shit thrown at them in the airport when they come back. When you invest in a company, do you ever get to see first hand how it is being managed?


Make no mistake, though, gambling is not safe. This is still gambling. At the most you can call it speculation. I have tested this theory with $200 of my own money: 16 bets, and got my money back every time. But I still feel the trepidation and dread every time I go down and punt. Your judgement has to be good. I do not have the temperament of a gambler. I suppose this is what trading is like, but it has worked for me so far.


You need to have discipline to stick to the 90% rule. I once bet on Argentina or Brazil to win the 2006 World Cup. Bad move. I once bet on a World Cup semi-finals where both teams were strong. Also bad move. In general, the more exciting a match (exciting meaning a see saw match, just like Aston Villa- Everton last night) the less you should bet on it. One sided massacres like Liverpool ass raping Blackburn is OK, except that I didn’t know if Liverpool are tired from Europe.


I would not have believed I had found a winning formula until I have had a chance to test it. I will lose a bet sooner or later but in the long run I will be ahead. You know the law of large numbers – if a person is consistently lucky, it is not luck.


Why don’t people know about this?


Well I don’t think that hedge funds would use this strategy. It is illegal. I don’t think people who found a way to consistently win money from Singapore Pools would crow to others about this. Might get into trouble with the authorities. I know 1 or 2 people who regularly bet money on football and claim to be ahead. I think it is possible. This concept was explained to me by a character in Graham Swift’s excellent novel, "Last Orders". He claims that through a careful study of the books, you can choose which ones to bet and you can land up ahead. Perhaps Graham Swift is relating the real life experience of a person who did the same.


Furthermore, there is a bias against gambling. Many people believe that all gambling is bad. True, it has the stigma of wrecking lives. True, it is addictive – and the chances that you will get hooked and all your discipline goes out the window is a very real possibility. But the same is true for anybody who trades in the financial markets for a living!


The last objection has to do with whether this is ethical, because every dollar you win is taken out of a community service project or some other expensive government project. Everybody who wants to win at Singapore pools is guilty of this, but yes you are more guilty because you know that in the long run you are ahead. This is not an essay about ethics, the choice is up to you.

A Double Life - 2

Scene 3

B has a camera, is taking pictures of Jennifer. With every flash of the camera, Jennifer changes her pose.

B: There you go, relax, lean a little to the right. OK (camera flash)

Jennifer: Do I look alright? Is this sash on too tight?

B: No, it's just fine. (click)

Jennifer: Do you know what I like about being a model?

B: Well, I've never had anybody ask me that question before. (click)

Jennifer: Really? Not even one out of all the other models you've worked with? And how many have there been?

B: I've been in this line for almost 10 years. (click)

Jennifer: That's a lot of models, I suppose.

B: Not really, I only started photographing models around 5 years ago. (click)

Jennifer: That's still a lot of them.

B: Oh, well, maybe. (click)

Jennifer: So how many are there?

B: Dunno, fifty to sixty, I suppose. (click)

Jennifer: That's quite a lot..

B: Well, that's a fair number (click)

Jennifer: Considering that you've almost definitely had more than a few session with some of them.

B: Yes, that's right (click)

Jennifer: So. back to our question. Have any of them asked you that?

B: Asked me what? (click)

Jennifer: You know. what's so great about being a model.

B: Well. I don't know. I never really thought bout it. (click)

Jennifer: You've been in the company of many beautiful girls, have you?

B: Most of them look pretty good to me. (click)

Jennifer: Just pretty good?

B: Some of them are a little more than pretty good. (click)

Jennifer: And the very best of them? (here, she strikes a pretty provocative gesture. B is getting a little hot under the collar)

B: Well, a few of them have been really beautiful. (a beat, then click)

Jennifer: (getting closer and closer to him. From here on, her poses get more and more provocative, and we can see that she's actively out to seduce him) And the really beautiful ones. what do they make you think about?

B: What? (click)

Jennifer: Doesn't it get to you? Every other week, taking pictures of beautiful women for men to ogle at, for women to envy, and you getting a piece of the (click) action first hand. doesn't it get to you?

B: (trying to sound calm and amused) What are you talking about? I'm a professional. I just try to make you as attractive as I can.

Jennifer: (now practically sidling up to him) Attractive to whom? (click) And you still haven't answered my question. What's so wonderful about being a model?

B: Well, I dunno.. never been on that side of the camera before.

Jennifer: It's the thought that somebody out there thinks that I am beautiful. I am beautiful, am I not? (here she starts to undo her sash, and wraps it around his neck. A slight pause, then B takes the camera away from his face, and starts gawking at her. The camera goes off, breaking him out of his daze)

B: Well. rather, in fact I think you're rather.

Jennifer: Do you? Well, I've been a great admirer of your work. I do think it makes me that much more charming that such a . fine man like you would be . thinking of ways . and means . to make a girl such as myself appear more . (loosens her blouse) One just wonders what's going through his mind . all this time .

B: (jaw drops) I . just think . you're very beautiful. Very. veery . in fact, you would be even more beautiful, if you would care to stand over there, so I could .

Jennifer: Could what? I just wonder what it is you possibly could want from me . Oh, could you help me with this zip at the back, please.

B: (rather unsteady) well, what do you want with it?

Jennifer: What do YOU want with it? All the way up. or all the way down..

B: (a tense pause, then calls out to backstage) Guys, I think we can pretty much call it a day now. (Enter make -up artists, lighting crew, basically a lot of people we didn't know were there at the start of the scene. Fade away lights, except for a single spotlight on B, for a little while, then off spotlight).

Scene 4

Joe: Where have you been these past few days?

A: Nowhere in particular .

Joe: Rubbish nowhere in particular. You've been out in public, running the risk of being followed, have you?

A: Well, considering that I've stayed away from the incriminating areas all this time.

Joe: Well, yes. I mean . UE square. I can't see how that's got anything to do with the stocking operation.

A: Neither can anybody else who's been following me around these few days. I've been absolutely careful that nobody's been following me around.

Joe: You're a fool. Anybody who opens himself up to unnecessary risks a few days before a major operation is an absolute fool.

A: I'm sorry, father.

Joe: And I can't really understand why you've been going there so much these day. (pause) You aren't seeing anyone else, are you?

A: You know as well as anybody else I've been absolutely faithful to Jackie all these years.

Joe: That's right. but . you know, I've spoilt her a lot . she's got a way with people that you can't say no to .

A: I know what you mean.

Joe: I mean, you know the number of people who have been coming after her even before you've come along.

A: Not to mention the number of "friends" she still has around her . You set her up to this, didn't you?

Joe: Set her up to what?

A: Your very own daughter. you asked her to come on to me just so that you could use me to get rid of Eddie . ?

Joe: Well, what do you think? You already knew it from the onset.

A: Doesn't mean that it was right. I just ruined another person's life because of her. And it wasn't just another person, it was one of the closest people to me .

Joe: Well, a lot of it was in your hands. You could have turned us down.

A: It was not my idea to have done it to him. You set me up in the first place.

Joe: Come, come now, that's water under the bridge already, isn't it? Whatever it is, why don't we rid ourselves of unnecessary distractions and start concentrate on the upcoming operation?

A: Well, I'm not very sure that. (Jackie comes in)

Jackie: Father. wait till you hear what A's just got me.

Joe: (laughing) what? (to A) See? You're just as responsible as I am for spoiling my little girl.

A: (embarrassed) She wanted it so much.. (Jackie shows a large diamond ring on her finger)

Jackie: Isn't it great, father?

Joe: (still laughing) Oh, my son. one of these days.. (slaps him on the back)

A: Anything to make her happy.

Joe: It must have cost you a fortune..

A: It did .

Jackie: I can't believe he actually did that for me.

Joe: Just goes to show how much he can't do without you. (Jackie gives A a big kiss)

A: (brightening, blushing) well. he's right you know.

Jackie: (girlishly) You've just made me the happiest girl in the world.

Joe: (amused) Until she sees the next piece of jewellery she likes. well I'll just leave you two young and happy people to your own. I've got other things to do.

A: Yeah.

(Joe leaves. Sound of door closing behind him.)

Jackie: Isn't this wonderful? (kisses him again.)

A: Yeh.. Tell me, Jackie. Do you love me?

Jackie: Well, what a funny question to ask. of course I do. Otherwise I wouldn't have gotten married to you, would I?

A: Do you truly, truly love me as much as I love you?

Jackie: What are you talking about? What's on your mind?

A: I . was just thinking about . what we did to Eddie ..

Jackie: Why should you? It's all over and done with, isn't it?

A: How you just threw yourself all over him .

Jackie: Come, now. you knew as well as I did that it was just an act. I did it for you, remember? I did it for us.

A: Us? What do you mean you did it for us? Eddie was one of my mentors in the business. He was the one who taught me everything I knew about running my business.

Jackie: (gleefully) some mentor, eh? You were the one who brought him down in the end. And moreover you didn't seem to be doing very well yourself up till then.

A: He helped me all he could. Moreover, how was I to know it was him? I couldn't see his face from where I was . And I couldn't see the face properly until I had the negatives developed.

Jackie: (laughing) That was so long ago. I didn't think that you'd ever bring it up again.

A: All the same, I really felt cheated. Remember how we met?

Jackie: What's all this got to do with how we met?

A: I can't shake off the nagging feeling. What you did with him when I was taking those photos . so suspiciously similar to that time I had my photo shoot with you.

Jackie: (Suddenly furious) What are you trying to imply? How can you compare yourself with him?

A: Well if you could try it on me, and you could try it on him..

Jackie: Is that what it all comes down to? That I'm some kind of a cheap

slut throwing herself into every other man who comes along?

A: Well, how the hell was I supposed to know? Considering that how it started .

Jackie: How it started was how it started! Are you just going to discount 4 years of married life together just because of how it began? Just because I happened to take a fancy to you during a photography session?

A: Well God knows if .

Jackie: What do you mean by that? You're telling me I was leading you on all this time? Well (taking the diamond ring and throwing it on the floor) you can take this back, since obviously it doesn't mean anything to you.

A: Well, what I actually wanted to say was that..

Jackie: I've never been this insulted in my whole life!

A: You've never been this insulted? You should have known that I'd bring this up sooner or later. God knows why I waited so long to muster up the courage to say this to you. You'd know you had to remove this lingering doubt from the back of my mind eventually.

Jackie: What's there to clarify? I've done so much for you, can't you see? What would you be doing nowadays if I didn't ask father to look after you?

A: So now you're implying that it was merely due to your father's influence alone that had me placed on the board of directors? So what does that make me, a fortune hunter?

Jackie: How should I know what you were really after?

A: After all that I've done for your father .

Jackie: Or should I say. what you've actually done for yourself. Well, think about it. It takes 2 hands to clap. Nothing would have happened at all if you didn't decide to join in. You played your part in all this and there's no turning back or putting the blame on me for this. (Storms out)

(As usual, lights out except for spot on A, then off spot.)

Scene 5 (Spotlight on B as B walks into the stage, he finds a chair and sits down)

Linda: (as yet unseen) You're still thinking about her, aren't you?

B: Wha.? (rest of lights on, and Linda's sitting there)

Linda: You're still thinking about that woman, aren't you? That Jennifer.

B: Well, it happens that I am. So what if I am?

Linda: I think you're getting obsessed with her. Just because she came on to you like that.

B: Come off it. the girl's just being playful.
Linda: You think about her all the time. You'd do anything for her.

B: . so what if I am?

Linda: Don't you think any decent girl would think twice before coming on to another guy like she did on you?

B: Like it or not, we're going steady now.

Linda: Alright, alright, just teasing you. Well I got some serious business to talk to you. It's about the accounts.

B: We're still in the red, aren't we?

Linda: Yes, we are. Things aren't going that well with this business. This is the third straight year.

B: I know things are bad, Linda, but .

Linda: We'll have to close shop in a couple of months if things don't work out. It's really bad. This is probably going to be real cruel to you, knowing how much you like photography.

B: I could always go working for someone else..

Linda: It's not the same. And you know it, you're always so used to having things done your way.

B: Well I gotta go. I just came to drop off something.

Linda: Where're you off to?

B: (smiling) I got a date with Jennifer at UE Mall.

Football Betting Week 7

Very brief note. Season was over already and not much to bet about. I think I only bet Tampines to win against Balestier because of my policy of always betting against the whipping boys. I also bet Everton to eat 1.5 ball against Chelsea. As the matched neared, I was beginning to realise this was potentially unwise. I had bought the odds for 1.28, and then I saw the odds lengthen to 1.5 just before the match. Which means that a lot of people felt that Chelsea could beat them by2 or more goals.

So I want to thank Louis Saha very much for his 25 second goal. I want to thank the referee for denying Chelsea a penalty. I want to thank the referee also for not realising that the ball that bounced down off a crossbar actually crossed the line, and that the real score of the FA cup final was 3-1. But Chelsea are rather more gracious these days after they got slapped left, right and centre for that Barcelona fracas. And furthermore if you have won the FA Cup, and are seeing off a coach that you like, you don't give a shit about these minor things.

I suppose that given some of the bad luck that I had been having over the last few weeks, I got some good luck to even it out. (Note to gamblers: this is not true, I'm taking poetic license with the laws of probability. It doesn't mean that just because you have had bad luck, some good luck will come around to even it out.)

Aside from that near miss, there was one of the biggest games of the season: Barcelona vs Man U. Fat boy asked me what to bet. I refused to put a wager on it, because I was so uncertain of the outcome. He pressed me for my gut feeling. My feeling was that Barcelona had the more talented side which played with more flair. But I also felt that Man U had always shown more spirit because they were a side from England. (Notice that I did not say they were an "English" side.) So I told him to bet on Man U. After the match I got worried that he threw away a large amount of money. Until I asked him, and he told me that another friend had told him that Barcelona were stronger. And he listened to that friend. So good for him.

At the end of the betting season, I had wagered $450, and my account is at +$10. It is not spectacularly good or spectacularly bad. I think that my strategy works, and that I'm on to something. I don't like people jumping to conclusions, and based on some generalised law they have heard about somewhere else, blithely say that all gambling leads to ruin. It doesn't mean that there are no systems that work. The eventual outcome of a spate of gambling should depend upon the behaviour of the gambler, and it should always be possible that if people behave in a way that is different from the average gambler, they can earn a small profit.