Dow

A person watching the tide comingin, and who wishes to know the exact spot which marks the high tide, sets a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it, and finally recede enough to show that thte tide has turned.

This method holds good in watching and determining the flood tide of the stock market... the prive waves, like those of the sea, do not recede at once from the top. The force which moves them checks the inflow gradually and time elapses before it can be told with certainty whether the tide has been seen or not.

Charles Dow

One of the ideas in stock markets is that you don’t really know when a stock has reached a local high. Yes, you can have the price going up every day, or maybe stumbling back one day but roaring back higher than ever before. You won’t know. It is only clear in retrospect. Charles Dow (yes he is the Dow Jones Dow) compared this to the tides, where a watermark would show where the highest tide once reached before it receded.

Similarly it was also true for the oil reserves in America. It used to be self sufficient in oil until the 70s which is why all its problems with the Middle East only started around that time. And the fact that its oil production peaked during those years was only evident in hindsight. It was only clear 5-10 years after the fact. Similarly, oil production in the whole world might have already peaked, we don’t know. People predict somewhere between 2006 and 2016, and we will probably look back upon it at

And it’s also true of happiness. You wouldn’t know what the happiest time of your life was when you were living it. It’s only when you look back that you know.