I record my betting on this blog because I wanted to make public my experiment with football betting. The last 3 weekends have been very mixed in terms of my fortunes.
2 weeks ago, I had a great record. I bet on Everton to beat Portsmouth because everybody was beating Portsmouth (I was right). I bet on Liverpool to beat Hull, who were having a miserable time, and I was right. I bet on Arsenal to beat Fulham and I was lucky – Fulham played better than Arsenal, but lost 0-1. Finally I bet on Man City to beat West Ham and I got that one right. There was also a La Liga match involving Real Madrid or Barcelona, and I got that one right too. My takings were $20 for getting everything correct.
Last week, though, it was a disaster. I bet on Tottenham to beat Bolton, and they were only able to draw. I bet on Wigan to beat Hull, but Hull beat them instead. I bet on Man U to beat Sunderland, and I got that wrong too. The only bet that worked was on Burnley to beat Birmingham at home.
Burnley are very good at home. It was risky betting on Burnley but worth it. For the Wigan match, I had to remember: 2 times I bet on Wigan this season, and I lost both bets. Wigan are unpredictable. Man U was not necessarily going to win against Sunderland – they had just finished Europe. Later on I also found out that Alex Ferguson had made a few tactical mistakes. I couldn’t explain Tottenham and Bolton, but there are a few teams you shouldn’t bet against – Everton, Bolton and Stoke. The boring-football,-but-we’ll-kick-you-off-the-park types. In my haste to bet on something, just so that I had something to bet on, I violated some of my rules.
This week, though, things are going quite OK. I bet on Arsenal to beat Birmingham. Arsenal are going through a good streak this season, and even though many people were predicting they would drop out of the top 4 this season, it seems as though Liverpool would be the one to make way instead. I also bet on Stoke to beat West Ham. Stoke are another side like Burnley, quite good at home, and difficult to beat. The score was tied until the 70th minute and so it was uncomfortable for me, but eventually it turned out OK. I don’t know about Real Madrid, but I won’t lose sleep over it.
This week, I’m also proud of the decisions I made not to bet. Everton “should” beat Wolves, but this season Everton is weaker, and so it was a draw instead. Liverpool are stronger than Sunderland on paper, but they lost, because Liverpool are in deep shit. A very far cry from the swaggering giants who were winning week after week towards the end of last season. Chelsea “should” beat Aston Villa, but even though they scored first, Chelsea lost. Chelsea are another team in shit trouble at the moment and at this rate, Arsenal or Man City has a great chance at the title.
One regret is that I didn’t bet on Tottenham to beat Portsmouth, although I thought that would happen. I thought that Portsmouth turned the corner by beating Wolves, but they are still weak. Wigan are weaker than Man City, but remember – never bet on an outcome that involves Wigan.
Update: Man City and Wigan drew. So the dictum that you should never bet on an outcome involving Wigan is correct.
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