Football Betting Season 2 Weeks 7-8

Last week was truly dreadful. I bet on 3 matches, and I lost on all of them. I bet on Wolves vs Aston Villa, thinking that Aston Villa were that much better than Wolves. I was wrong: Wolves put up a good show, they were at home, and this was a derby, which made the result harder to predict. In the end, Wolves snatched a draw and I lost money.

I also bet on Man U to beat Liverpool. This was a risky bet and I put a lower wager. It’s reasonable to believe that Liverpool is in a big mess right now: in the last few matches they lost to Fiorentina, Lyon, Sunderland, Fulham, and also their second team lost to Arsenal’s. This is relegation form. They lost all their matches in the last 3 weeks, except against their strongest opponent, Man U. There’s no legislating for this kind of inconsistency.

Last of all I bet on Arsenal to beat Weat Ham. It was going so well for me, they were 2 up, and then they just gave it away and drew.

This week, I didn’t bet. I would have bet on Chelsea to beat Bolton (they did), and on Man U to beat Blackburn (they did). But I would also have bet on Stoke to beat Wolves, and Wolves managed to claw back the points. I don’t know the betting amounts but I would have lost a few dollars.

The temptation was there to bet on Wigan to beat Portsmouth: Portsmouth are the current whipping boys, and Wigan had just performed well to be the first team to take points off Burnley at Turf Moor this season. But my policy is never to bet on a match that involves Wigan, and it shows: Portsmouth thrashed Wigan eventually.

I also made the right call not to bet on Liverpool to bet on Fulham, although it was impossible to call.

The lynchpin of my betting strategy is that we have big consistent performances by the big 4. This probably doesn’t happen until towards the end of the season, when everybody else is exhausted, and the big 4 can keep on going because they have been rotating their squads, or because their regular players are not human. It’s possible that I will have to lay off betting until after Christmas.

Edit: after this was posted I was mulling on whether to bet on Man City to beat Birmingham. I was about to bet on them, when I had this strange gut feeling that I shouldn't have. Thank god for that gut feeling - you can't rely on Man City to be able to beat everybody they're supposed to beat. They are, after all, Man City!