Football Betting Week 6

Last week was a bad week for me. 2 bets went awry, and then I realised that I should not have bet on them at all. I should not have bet on Hamburg and Werder Bremen to win their respective matches because they had just played 5,6 games in 3 weeks. Simple things like this - why do I keep fucking up?

The last week of the Premiership and the Bundesliga. I missed 1 easy bet when Shaktar Donesk played Werder Bremen in the UEFA cup final. I should have bet on Shaktar to win. (As in win the competition, not win the match because after 90 minutes it was a draw.)

This week, I have the chance to recoup all my losses. I just have to win all my bets. This is not as difficult as it sounds, because, remember, I am in the habit of making safe(r) bets.

Hoffenheim are in better shape than they were during their slump. So I bet on them to eat 1.5 ball against Schalke 04 who were so crap 2 weeks ago that they let relegation candidate Mochengladbach beat them. As of now, Hoffenheim are tied 2-2 with Schalke 04, and can let 1 more goal in and I'm still safe.

Wolfsburg have to beat Werder Bremen in order to ensure they win the Bundesliga. So let them do it. Right now, in the middle of the 2nd half, they are leading 3-1. Wolfsburg winning their first Bundesliga! Imagine! What a change from the EPL where it's always the Big 4 taking the top 4 and the big 4 minus Liverpool winning.

I rely on Werder Bremen and Schalke 04 to play their parts because since they fucked me up before this is the least they owe me. (Edit: yesssss... I win my 2 bundesliga bets. I am safe!!!)

For tomorrow, I say that Chelsea beats Sunderland. Chelsea still have a mathematical chance of beating Liverpool to 2nd and they can only do that if they win. Also I bet on Everton to eat ball vs Fulham. Since when have Fulham been so powerful that they give ball to Everton? Well if the bookies want to be stupid let them be.

You know me, I know what I'm doing. I can win it all back. My luck is changing. I'm going to strike the big one. Imagine what we can do. One more try. This will be my last. I promise I will give it back to you.

OK, I'm not kidding, when I say I can win it all back. I've been keeping count and I'm around $10 behind. I only bet $10 at a time. I've wagered less than $500 so far this season and getting back $490 is not that bad, even though it's hardly profitable.

Unlike fat boy who puts in $100 at 1 shot. There was this time, middle of last week, when he asked me whether I wanted to go bet on Sunderland vs Portsmouth. Now you know, betting on 2 evenly matched teams is not my style because you never know what's going to happen. He also asked me to go bet on even goals for some S-league match. That's not my style because I only bet on 80%, 90% outcomes. He asked me to go down to Sing Pools to bet, I refused. I'm wary, almost every time I've (intentionally or otherwise) deviated from my own principles, I've been punished.

Next day he was $600 poorer. Now I feel a little sorry for him because he only started betting again because he had a gambling buddy (ie me). But I gave him advice and he didn't take it, so who's there to blame?

Moral of the story? Don't fuck with the system.

Update: this is the first week where I have won every bet I made. OK, 4 is not a large number but at least I can say I'm in the black again. I was a little scared when Sunderland almost clawed their way back against Chelsea, but it's alright now. All 4 relegation candidates have lost their matches. Newcastle were relegated courtesy of an own goal by Damien Duff. Some players would rather get relegated so they can play for different clubs and you wonder if Damien Duff is one of them. OK, my football season has ended on a high, and I am in the black again.