Football betting week 1 part 1

I might turn out to be a regular gambler after all. I have a theory that it's possible to beat the Singapore Pools system, so wish me luck.

The conventional wisdom is that you shouldn't bet on games which have a very low return, because the amount you could win is small compared to the amount that you could get. But I don't think that's true. My rule of thumb is to bet on outcomes where you are 90% sure they will happen. I will give you a fuller exposition of this in the weeks to come. Until then I will keep on posting my bets.

There aren't many 90% bets. In fact I think I broke my own rule a few times. But anyway I bought based on whether I thought that the odds offered were higher than the probability of success.

There weren't that many high probability matches in the EPL, but I didn't think that Sunderland were going to thrash Hull, so I bought Hull to eat 1.5 ball vs Sunderland. Sunderland scored first, and I endured a very tense 1 hour that was compounded when I saw another team in red and white stripes score another goal. (Luckily for me that was Stoke). But no more goals, fortunately. So good for me, I won narrowly. After reading the match report, my hunch was right: Hull were fighting all the way.

I should not be worried about whether I win bets comfortably or by the skin of my teeth as I did in this one. If you bargain to win 90% of the time, then of that 90%, some wins will be comfortable margins, and some will not. A win is still a win.

Borussia Dortmund to beat Bochum. I was surprised that Dortmund beat Berlin 2 weeks ago and I suppose they were in good form. They gave me good odds at 2.2 so I got it, and as expected it was a comfortable 2-0 victory.

I thought that Munich would be another shoo-in to beat Bielefeld, who is near the bottom. Yes, Bayern Munich are back from Europe but I don't think Barcelona gave them much exertion - it was a lost cause anyway. I was nervous about this match so I only bet $5 for it, but I got back $7, so good for me.

The bet I lost was on Hoffenheim to beat Karlsruhe. I suppose I had a weak spot for both Hull and Hoffenheim because they were minnows who had a great first half of the season. As it is, both teams are fading fast. Hull, if they keep on losing, will go down. Hoffenheim are more comfortable but you would expect them to beat the bottom team - they didn't.

The last bet is on a match that's not been played yet - I bet on Tottenham to beat Newcastle. Yes, they are talking about the Alan Shearer effect but it's yet to kick in. I don't know if it ever will. Yes, this is not a 90% bet but I suppose all the alternatives were worse. I need a little more discipline to avoid breaking my own rules. Anyway, wish me luck.

Edit: Tottenham beat Newcastle. Ka-ching!